Presidential Elections and the Stock Market
I recently had a conversation with a client about the upcoming presidential election and how it may impact the markets–and more importantly, their portfolio.
We discussed some general guidance about us not knowing the future, current market prices, market timing, etc… Admittedly, we came to the conclusion we won’t know the impact. We guessed there may be some volatility the week before and after the election. And, we came to the conclusion it was best to leave the portfolio alone during this time. Here is a more in depth article regarding the same.
While the outcome is unknown, one thing is for certain: There will be a steady stream of opinions from pundits and prognosticators about how the election will impact the stock market. As we explain below, investors would be well‑served to avoid the temptation to make significant changes to a long‑term investment plan based upon these sorts of predictions.
SHORT-TERM TRADING AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS
Trying to outguess the market is often a losing game. Current market prices offer an up-to-the-minute snapshot of the aggregate expectations of market participants. This includes expectations about the outcome and impact of elections. While unanticipated future events—surprises relative to those expectations—may trigger price changes in the future, the nature of these surprises cannot be known by investors today. As a result, it is difficult, if not impossible, to systematically benefit from trying to identify mispriced securities. This suggests it is unlikely that investors can gain an edge by attempting to predict what will happen to the stock market after a presidential election.
Click the link to see related charts showing; monthly returns with election months highlighted and the growth of a dollar with the different administrations highlighted. You will find to pattern. Presidential Elections and the Stock Market Presentation
LONG-TERM INVESTING: BULLS & BEARS ≠ DONKEYS & ELEPHANTS
Predictions about presidential elections and the stock market often focus on which party or candidate will be “better for the market” over the long run.
Equity markets can help investors grow their assets, but investing is a long-term endeavor. Trying to make investment decisions based upon the outcome of presidential elections is unlikely to result in reliable excess returns for investors. At best, any positive outcome based on such a strategy will likely be the result of random luck. At worst, it can lead to costly mistakes. Accordingly, there is a strong case for investors to rely on patience and portfolio structure, rather than trying to outguess the market, in order to pursue investment returns.
Click for an easy to forward PDF Presidential Elections and the Stock Market.